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The reasoning behind considering the likelihood of a nuclear attack against the U.S. as very low involves several critical factors related to international relations and military capabilities. Specifically, nations that are labeled as hostile or terrorist in nature generally do not possess the advanced delivery systems, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) or long-range bombers, needed to effectively launch a nuclear weapon at the U.S. This limitation significantly reduces the immediate threat of a nuclear attack, as the logistical challenges of deploying such advanced technologies serve as a deterrent.

While having an effective warning system is vital for national security, it primarily refers to the ability to detect incoming threats rather than the actual likelihood of an attack occurring. Additionally, not all countries possess nuclear weapons—many only have conventional military capabilities. Furthermore, while the accounting and safety of nuclear devices are important, asserting that all devices are accounted for oversimplifies the complexities tied to nuclear security. Thus, the limited capabilities of potential aggressor nations, especially regarding their delivery methods, play a crucial role in maintaining low levels of threat associated with nuclear attacks against the U.S.